Republican candidates gained the six seats necessary to recapture control of the United States Senate Tuesday, raising pro-lifers’ hopes of passing legislation but dealing a blow to supporters of immigration reform.
GOP candidates won easily in three states where the Democratic incumbent retired and GOP presidential nominee Mitt Romney won in 2012 (West Virginia, Montana, and South Dakota); knocked off two Democratic incumbents in Republican-leaning Southern states (Arkansas and North Carolina); and proclaimed victorty in two states that President Obama won in 2008 and 2012 (Iowa and Colorado).
A transfer of power from Democratic to Republican hands will embolden pro-life advocates. Mallory Quigley, spokeswoman for the Susan B. Anthony List, said Republican control of the Senate would change the body’s legislative priorities. She cited a proposed ban on nearly all abortions after the 20th week of pregnancy. The Republican-controlled House approved the bill last year but the legislation has languished in the Senate.
“This is great news for all pro-life Americans hoping to advance the Pain Capable Unborn Child Protection Act,” Quigley said Tuesday night, when the race results were beginning to look favorable for the Republicans. "Mitch McConnell has pledged to bring this legislation to the floor for a vote if his party takes the majority tonight."
McConnell, who beat a Democratic challenger in Kentucky, is poised to become Senate Majority Leader.
Before the election results Tuesday, pro-life Republicans felt good about their chances of adding to their numbers on Capitol Hill.
In the House, pro-life Republicans hailed Elise Stefanik’s likely victory in a district in upstate New York.
At 30 years old, Stefanik would be the youngest woman elected to Congress. The Harvard graduate is a former staffer in Congress and aide to Paul Ryan’s vice-presidential campaign in 2012. “Her energy, experience, and passion for promoting the dignity of each human life will make Elise an excellent addition to the House Pro-life Women’s Caucus,” Susan B. Anthony List Candidate Fund President Marjorie Dannenfelser said in a statement. A Stefanik spokesperson did not return multiple calls for comment.
Dannenfelser’s organization supports pro-life candidates in both parties, but the results from Tuesday night are expected to thin the ranks of pro-life Democrats in Congress.
Election experts predict Rep. Nick Rahall of West Virginia will struggle to earn another term in office. The Rothenberg Political Report rates Rahall’s race as a “pure tossup,” while University of Virginia political scientist Larry Sabato said Rahall’s Republican challenger, state senator Evan Jenkins, has a slight edge.
Rep. Mike McIntyre of North Carolina is retiring at the end of the 113th Congress in January. A Republican, former state senator David Rouzer, is expected to win the seat easily. If Jenkins and Rouzer win their races Tuesday, the number of pro-life Democrats in the House would diminish. Democrats for Life of America listed Rahall, McIntyre, Rep. Dan Lipinski of Illinois, and Collin Peterson of Minnesota as pro-life Democrats. An organization spokeswoman did not return a voicemail for comment by press time.
Like pro-life Democrats, supporters of immigration reform are expected to dwindle in number after Tuesday.
In June 2013, 54 Democrats and 14 Republicans in the Senate voted for the Border Security, Economic Opportunity, and Immigration Modernization Act. The United States Conference of Catholic Bishops threw its weight behind the legislation, especially the most controversial part of the bill which allowed some illegal immigrants to become citizens after passing a background check, paying a fine, and establishing eligibility. “Such a program would help stabilize the workforce, promote family unity, and bring a large population ‘out of the shadows,’ as members of their communities,” the bishops wrote in a statement in support of the legislation.
Democrats Mark Udall of Colorado, Mary Landrieu of Louisiana, Mark Begich of Alaska, and Mark Pryor of Arkansas voted for the legislation, but polls show that each trails in head-to-head matchups with a Republican challenger. In addition, Scott Brown, a former Republican senator from Massachusetts, has pulled closer in his race against Democratic Sen. Jeanne Shaheen of New Hampshire after criticizing her vote for the legislation.
Losing control of the Senate would be a blow to congressional Democrats. The party has held the upper chamber since 2007. But holding onto seats in the sixth year of a presidency has proved elusive for the party in power. Democrats managed the feat in 1998 when Bill Clinton was in the White House, but neither party has gained or retained its number of seats since World War II.
The election cycle was no help. The party is defending 21 of the 36 seats in play. In addition, geography hurt the party’s chances of keeping its majority. President Obama lost 10 states at risk of changing hands – Montana, South Dakota, West Virginia, Arkansas, Louisiana, North Carolina, Kentucky, Georgia, Kansas, and Alaska. Democrats will catch a break in two years, however. The party will defend 9 of the 31 seats in play.
Senators serve for six-year terms in the 100-member body. By contrast, all 435 members of the House of Representatives are on the ballot every two years. Political handicapper Charlie Cook said Republicans defended 27 open seats and Democrats 17 this fall. Although the election cycle hurt Senate Democrats this year, it is not expected to damage House Republicans as badly.
According to the Rothenberg Political Report, Republicans are likely to gain five to 12 seats. If the party gained 13 seats, it would reach a post-World War II high. Republicans have 234 seats, Democrats 201.
Many races may not be decided Tuesday night. Political observers expect the races in Alaska, Louisiana, and Georgia will remain undecided for weeks and months. The two southern states have runoff elections if no candidate receives half of the popular votes (Louisiana’s is December 5, Georgia’s January 6). Tallying votes in remote parts of Alaska is difficult, and races in other states may trigger recounts.
Although President Obama dragged down congressional candidates in competitive seats, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee used his name to urge party loyalists to vote and tell their friends and neighbors to do the same. “Millions of Americans are proud to have voted for President Obama in 2008, and again in 2012. Now he needs your vote one last time,” the ad implored viewers.
Mark Stricherzcovers Washington for Aleteia. He is author of Why the Democrats are Blue.
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