In the end, the vote that for weeks had looked too close to call was as clear as could be. Faced with the stark question, “Should Scotland be an independent country?” 2,001,926 people – 55.3 percent of Scotland’s voters – ultimately decided they could only answer this in the negative, and by the early hours of Friday morning it was clear that Scotland would be remaining in the United Kingdom for the foreseeable future.
Turnout had been busy all day, with 84.6 percent of registered voters casting their votes, topping even the 83.9 percent who voted in the 1950 general election.
As voting ended, pollsters YouGov published the results of a survey of 1800 people it had previously polled. They were asked now how they had actually voted, and only 46 percent had opted for independence, with 54 percent preferring the security of life in the Union to the risks of secession. Announcing these results, YouGov president Peter Kellner said, “it’s a 99 percent certainty it’s a No victory. I can’t see No losing this now.”
As counting continued through the night, local authority after local authority declared its results, with the No side building up a steady lead; only four local authorities declared for Yes, and though they included the vital cities of Glasgow and Dundee, turnout in these areas was lower than the national average—such that these successes did little to balance out the overall result.
Eventually a Yes victory became a mathematical impossibility, and the Yes campaign’s leaders, First Minister Alex Salmond and Deputy First Minister Nicola Sturgeon, conceded defeat. Speaking just after 6 o’clock Friday morning, Salmond began by thanking Scotland for “1.6 million votes for independence,” and clarifying that “It is important to say that our referendum was an agreed and consented process and Scotland has by a majority decided not, at this stage, to become an independent country.“
While calling upon his fellow Scots to respect the verdict, his “at this stage” pointed all too clearly to a belief that a battle had been lost, but the war would go on. Everyone could see, he said, that “45%, that 1.6 million votes, is a substantial vote for Scottish independence and the future of this country.”
Of such support for independence, he said, “I don’t think any of us, whenever we entered politics, would have thought such a thing to be either credible or possible.”
One might wonder why Salmond has sought such a referendum if he had thought victory beyond his reach, but those with longer memories will recall that when negotiating with Prime Minister David Cameron about the referendum’s terms, he had originally sought a three-way ballot in which voters could choose between independence, the status quo, and enhanced devolution or “Devo Max.” Cameron rejected this, forcing a straight choice between independence and the status quo, but as opinion polls began to lean towards secession, former Labour Prime Minister Gordon Brown was delegated to tell wavering Scots that a No vote would in fact mean the very “Devo Max” Salmond seems to have originally wanted.
It is difficult to tell how much input politicians beyond Cameron’s inner circle had into this offer. On Friday morning, William Hague, Leader of the House of Commons and until recently Foreign Secretary, had no real answer when the BBC’s Andrew Neil pointedly asked him,“ Mr. Hague, when the Prime Minister outsourced constitutional reform to Gordon Brown during the campaign, was the Cabinet consulted?”
Given the apparent lack of consultation, it is hardly surprising that both Conservative and Labour backbenchers are uneasy with what this constitutional reform may involve, but they may have little choice but to go along with it, at least in terms of empowering Scotland. Salmond made this very clear in his acceptance speech, saying “the unionist parties made vows late in the campaign to devolve more powers to Scotland. Scotland will expect these to be honored in rapid course.“
This should not be dismissed as mere political bluster. The Herald newspaper, for instance, had said something very similar on Tuesday, when it backed the No campaign and addressed the pro-UK parties:
“The Herald backs Scotland staying within the UK at this stage. But fudge this process, stitch it up and fail to deliver far-reaching further devolution, and make no mistake: you will be guaranteeing another referendum — one that you will lose, and deserve to lose.”
Salmond’s call to his fellow Scots to build on the energy of the referendum and go forward together as a nation was echoed by Alastair Darling, former Chancellor of the Exchequer and frontman of the “Better Together” No campaign, who said, “’This has been a campaign that has both energized but, at times, divided. Some people have felt unable to speak except through the ballot box. Those divisions now need to be addressed. That requires leadership, and my colleagues and I will play our part in bringing the country together, to demonstrate that after this vote we can remain united.”
Addressing those on the Yes side, Darling said, “I understand that amongst those who supported Yes there will be disappointment, or even grief. Defeat is painful, as I can tell you from my own personal experience.” Nonetheless, he said, it was time to move on and work together “for progress and change, for Scotland within the United Kingdom.”
Scotland’s bishops’ conference issued a statement acknowledging and paying respect to the result, and commending “all those who participated in what was a passionate and sometimes partisan debate.”
“The vast majority of Scots engaged with the referendum,” they said,” and it is our hope that we can all now cooperate for the benefit of our nation in future. We urge the Catholic community to continue to engage in public debate and decision-making and, in doing so, to uphold the meaning and importance of the Christian message. May God bless Scotland.”
Before the sun had set on the election results, however, Salmond announced he would be stepping down in November as First Minister and leader of the Scottish National Party, having led his country for seven years and his party for 20. “We lost the referendum vote but Scotland can still carry the political initiative,” he said. “For me as leader my time is nearly over but for Scotland the campaign continues and the dream shall never die.”
Warning his fellow Scots that Cameron might have trouble persuading his party to devolve further powers in March through a second reading of a Scotland Bill, in accord with “a clear promise laid out by Gordon Brown during the campaign,” he said Scotland now was positioned to hold “Westminster’s feet to the fire.”
Cameron has said that the referendum has settled the Scottish question for a generation. Whether Scotland agrees remains to be seen.
Greg Daly covers the U.K. and Ireland for Aleteia.
And today we celebrate...